By: David Stout
Mere hours before any formal announcement by the U.S. government, one Polymarket user initiated a trade to bet that former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be ousted from his role by January 31, 2026.[1] That single transaction netted the anonymous user $436,000.[2] Polymarket and its competitor, Kalshi, allow users to place bets on the occurrence of an event by purchasing an event contract on their online platforms.[3] These prediction markets recently introduced sports-event contracts, enabling traders to predict the outcomes of sporting events.[4] Subsequently, legal battles have proceeded in multiple states throughout the country to answer whether these prediction markets can successfully circumvent state gambling regulations.[5]
Prediction markets allow users to purchase event contracts that pay out on the occurrence, or non-occurrence, of a specified event by a specified date.[6] These event contracts operate as a “yes/no” prediction, where the contract value on each side of the prediction ranges between $0.01 and $0.99.[7] Unlike traditional sportsbooks, where the transaction is structured as a bet against the sportsbook, event contracts are traded from user to user, with the contract price reflecting the market-implied probability of the event occurrence.[8] Beginning with the 2024 election, prediction markets have attracted a huge influx of new customers.[9] Now, customers may purchase event contracts on the outcomes of political elections, the winners of sporting events, and even the use of military force against a sovereign nation.[10] Over a two-month period in late 2025, Kalshi doubled its valuation from $5 billion to $11 billion and saw a 1,000% growth in trading volume from 2024.[11]
Kalshi provided the blueprint that allowed this growth to happen back in 2020 when they applied with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) to be a Designated Contract Maker (“DCM”).[12] The CFTC retains exclusive jurisdiction to regulate commodities and derivatives.[13] As a DCM, Kalshi is only subject to federal commodities regulations due to the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution.[14] Initially, this designation allowed Kalshi to sidestep state gambling regulations, as they allegedly sell futures contracts and are not a traditional betting platform.[15] Their ability to freely operate and expand received a significant boost with the change in administration after the 2024 election, as the CFTC dropped all pending actions against prediction markets.[16]
Though they vary per jurisdiction, many state gambling regulations include rules on common categories such as advertising restrictions, wager and time limits, and mandatory participation in responsible gaming plans.[17] After the introduction of sports event contracts, multiple states have brought cases against Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that they should be regulated by state gaming laws.[18] However, federal district courts have split on the issue.[19] Courts in Nevada and New Jersey found that the CFTC retained exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, while a court in Maryland held that federal preemption was not intended to cover state gambling regulations.[20] A district court judge in Massachusetts went as far as to grant the first preliminary injunction against Kalshi, mandating that it comply with local regulations.[21]
Allowing prediction markets to circumvent state gambling regulations incentivizes other companies, such as traditional sportsbooks, to take similar measures and adopt a prediction market element into their own operations.[22] This would effectively make gaming laws moot. Sports events contracts enable users to place the same bets, with the same spreads, that traditionally are offered by sportsbooks.[23] Unregulated prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, have the potential to attract a lot more users as their offerings are not limited to just sports games.[24] Additionally, as both companies experience huge rises in their market capitalization, their ability to advertise and attract more users also increases.[25] With no further action by the CFTC, the future of prediction markets remains both lucrative and hazy due to the ongoing cases in several states.
[1] Megan Cerullo, Prediction Market Use Made $436,000 Betting on Maduro Capture, CBS News (Jan. 6, 2026, at 17:41 ET), https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-maduro-capture-bet-400000/ [https://perma.cc/G2MZ-WY98].
[2] Id.
[3] See id.
[4] See Devon Henderson, What is Kalshi, the Predictions Market That’s Attracted the NCAA’s Attention, The Athletic (Nov. 5, 2025), https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6778085/2025/11/04/what-is-kalshi-the-predictions-market-thats-attracted-the-ncaas-attention/ [https://perma.cc/2LZZ-F2GH].
[5] See generally Andrew O’Malley, Kalshi Wins Partial Stay in Nevada While Ninth Circuit Appeal Looms, Gambling Insider (Jan. 16, 2026), https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/104119/kalshi-nevada-partial-stay-ninth-circuit-appeal [https://perma.cc/2MAB-PMSA] (providing overviews of recent district court decisions).
[6] See Henderson, supra note 4.
[7] See generally Vineet Nair, What is Kalshi Prediction Market, Ledger Acad. (Jan. 20, 2026), https://www.ledger.com/academy/topics/economics-and-regulation/what-is-kalshi-prediction-market#:~:text= [https://perma.cc/C359-A44D] (explaining how event contracts work).
[8] See id.
[9] David Yaffe-Bellany, All Bets Are On: The Rise of Prediction Markets, N.Y. Times (Jan. 19, 2026), https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/19/technology/polymarket-kalshi-prediction-markets.html [https://perma.cc/W5XZ-6GB9].
[10] See id.
[11] Pritam Biswas, Kalshi’s Valuation Doubles on Strong Interest in Prediction Markets Platforms, Reuters (Dec. 2, 2025, at 15:28 ET), www.reuters.com/business/kalshi-valued-11-billion-latest-financing-round-2025-12-02/ [https://perma.cc/5YKX-3HNM].
[12] Brett Shanks & Alex Gunning, Sportsbooks or Commodity Exchanges? The Rising Legal Tensions Between Sports Betting and Prediction Markets, Stinson (Nov. 13, 2025), https://www.stinson.com/newsroom-publications-sportsbooks-or-commodity-exchanges-the-rising-legal-tensions-between-sports-betting-and-prediction-markets [https://perma.cc/MN3T-YXYY].
[13] 7 U.S.C. § 2(a)(1)(A).
[14] See id.
[15] See Yaffe-Bellany, supra note 9.
[16] Shanks & Gunning, supra note 12.
[17] Responsible Gaming Regulations and Statutes Guide, Am. Gaming Assoc. (July 8, 2025), https://www.americangaming.org/resources/responsible-gaming-regulations-and-statutes-guide/ [https://perma.cc/9DH8-WQAC].
[18] O’Malley, supra note 5.
[19] Shanks & Gunning, supra note 12.
[20] See id.
[21] Nate Raymond, Kalshi Cannot Operate Sports-Prediction Market in Massachusetts, Judge Rules, Reuters (Jan. 20, 2026, at 16:51 ET), https://www.reuters.com/world/kalshi-cannot-operate-sports-prediction-market-massachusetts-judge-rules-2026-01-20/ [https://perma.cc/7HQX-DQUT].
[22] See Yaffe-Bellany, supra note 9 (explaining that Polymarket only needed to register with the CFTC to resume operating in the US).
[23] See Benjamin Schiffrin, Predictably, “Prediction Markets” Are Just Casinos, Better Markets (Jan. 26, 2026), https://bettermarkets.org/analysis/predictably-prediction-markets-are-just-casinos/ [https://perma.cc/BC5M-D52D] (adding that the CFTC, which specializes in commodities trading, is unfit to regulate this type of market).
[24] See id.
[25] See Biswas, supra note 11.
